Emission Regs to Benefit Smaller Truck Engines

By Mike Osenga18 March 2020

According to the recently released N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine Outlook, published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates, engines over 10 L accounted for 87% of Class 8 production in 2019 because of the high demand for tractors in the peak-cycle year. Demand for engines under 10 L, used mostly in trucks, was softer last year.

However, the report noted that emission impacts in 2024 will benefit engines 10 L and under, that are forecast to be about 16% of the market. Andrew Wrobel, Global Market Intelligence Commercial Vehicle and Off-Highway Forecasts of Rhein Associates said, “It is anticipated that trucks will increase use of smaller displacement engines, while the forecast predicts a gradual reduction in favor of the 12 to 14 L category for use in tractors, as opposed to the over 14 L category. We expect the 12 to 14L engine segment to dominate in tractor-use demand by 2024.”

Regarding Classes 5-7, Wrobel said, “In this market, the current metric of interest is gasoline penetration, which continues to gain share, and is forecast to hit nearly 24% of the market by 2024.”

Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research said, “North America’s Class 8 truck and tractor production had a banner year in 2019, with tractor production up more than 4% year-over-year and truck build nearly 9% above 2018’s year-end total.

“The vehicle, or more accurately, the application of the vehicle directly correlates to the type of engine needed.” Vieth added. “That said, the EPA and CARB are both working on regulatory initiatives to address NOx emissions from heavy duty on-road trucks, which could result in different engine purchase patterns, including a potential switch to alternative fueled engines/electric power, in the out-years of our forecasts.”

The NA On-Highway Engine Outlook published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates highlights power-source activity for commercial vehicle GVWs 5-8, including five-year forecasts of engines volumes and product trends. The Engine Outlook ties to the detailed NA CV vehicle forecasts published monthly by ACT in the NA Commercial Vehicle Outlook. This report benefits businesses and manufacturers in the commercial vehicle engine production supply chain, and any company following the investment value of engine OEMs and their suppliers.

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