DNV presents Maritime Forecast to 2050 report

DNV headquarters in Hamburg, Germany

DNV, a risk management and assurance company, has published its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report. This is the sixth edition of the report.

According to DNV Maritime CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, the greatest hurdle for those looking to transition to a decarbonized future is fuel availability. Instead of deciding which on-board technologies or fuel is better suited to the application, the decarbonization of the maritime industry will be linked to having sufficient volumes of better, cleaner fuels available at ports.

Other key points raised at the conference included how pathways to new fuels for the maritime industry are linked to giant investments, especially considering onshore delivery. It was also put forward that fuels coming from sustainable biomass should be reserved for industries which have difficult-to-abate emissions, such as maritime and aviation.

The Forecast 2050 report considers the comprehensive picture, including production, distribution and bunkering infrastructures required to enable the maritime industry’s shift to carbon-neutral fuels. It also presents an updated outlook on regulations, policy drivers, future technologies and costs related to decarbonizing shipping.

The report compares two different decarbonization pathways: ‘Current IMO ambitions to 2050’ and ‘Full Decarbonization by 2050’. DNV’s modelling points to a diverse future energy mix comprising both fossil and carbon-neutral fuels, with fossil fuels gradually being phased out by 2050.

Speaking about this at the SMM conference in Hamburg, Germany, Ørbeck-Nilssen said: “Carbon-neutral fuels must be made available for ships already within this decade. By no later than 2030, 5% of the energy for shipping should come from carbon-neutral fuels.”

The report also highlighted how future fuel price uncertainties and availability make it very difficult to identify a preferred fuel. Current options include ammonia, methanol, diesel or methane produced from sustainable biomass. Other choices include renewable electricity or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The Forecast 2050 report outlines under what conditions each option will return the best results.

The full Maritime Forecast to 2050 from DNV can be downloaded here.